The pi coin newsclosing week of June (6/26-6/30) witnessed synchronized gains across major equity benchmarks. The S&P 500 advanced 2.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.0%, with European markets mirroring this optimism as the STOXX 600 rose 1.9%. This broad-based strength underscores growing investor confidence in economic resilience.

Technology shares continued their dominance, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1.9% weekly gain that extended its year-to-date surge to an unprecedented 38.8%. This remarkable performance has been fueled by megacap innovators, particularly in AI-related sectors, with Nvidia's valuation nearly doubling and Apple achieving the historic $3 trillion market cap milestone.

June's PCE data revealed mixed signals, with headline inflation falling to 3.8% - the first sub-4% reading since April 2021. However, the core PCE metric remained stubbornly elevated at 4.6% annually, only marginally below expectations. This dichotomy highlights the Fed's ongoing challenge: while goods inflation moderates, service sector pressures (excluding housing) continue to demonstrate persistent momentum, rising 4.53% year-over-year.

Market pricing currently reflects an 87.4% probability of another 25 basis point hike in July, with traders closely monitoring Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. A cooling labor market could signal inflationary relief, but with disposable income growth remaining robust, the Fed appears committed to its tightening path until services inflation shows definitive moderation.

The Commerce Department's upward revision of Q1 GDP to 2% annualized growth - 0.7% above prior estimates - surprised markets expecting 1.4% expansion. This revision, driven by stronger consumer spending and export activity, complements a series of robust economic indicators:

• May durable goods orders surged 1.7% against expectations of 0.9% contraction
• New home sales jumped 12.2% annually to 763,000 units
• Consumer confidence hit 109.7 in June, significantly surpassing forecasts

While these indicators bolster soft landing narratives, analysts caution that monetary policy impacts typically manifest with a 5-6 quarter lag, suggesting recession risks haven't fully dissipated.

The Nasdaq 100's 28x forward P/E multiple now sits comfortably above its 10-year average, raising questions about sustainability. Historical patterns show that when the index gains ≥10% in H1, H2 averages 14% returns - but this drops to 8.3% when H1 gains exceed 20%.

Upcoming Q2 earnings season presents a critical test for tech valuations. Positive surprises could justify current multiples through growth narratives, particularly around AI adoption. Conversely, any earnings disappointments may trigger profit-taking in these high-flying names, especially if macroeconomic conditions show signs of deterioration.

Investors should monitor:
• July 7 nonfarm payrolls report
• Q2 earnings releases beginning mid-July
• Fed policy meeting outcomes
• Any shifts in service sector inflation trends